Douglas Schorr

Nine out of ten Africans would not have been born if the Europeans had looked, said, “No, too much trouble,” and sailed home.

Before the return of now non-blacks to sub-Saharan Africa, the indigenous black experienced population growth barely exceeding replacement rates. This stagnation birthed a unique form of tribal conflict—not traditional warfare but strategic operations aimed at acquiring “human capital” through the capture of young, able-bodied individuals.

The contrast between past and present is stark. Today’s black African population explosion stems directly from external intervention. Modern Africa’s elite, exemplified in South Africa, pursue a discourse that vilifies that intervention, and of all things, they’ve chosen the issuance of discounted education certificates as validation. This mindset persists even as forecasts for 2100 predict an unprecedented population surge that, as things stand now, will overwhelm global resources.

Historical context illuminates this transformation. Around 300 thousand years ago, our ancestors in Equatorial Africa achieved relative comfort in the original “Garden of Eden.” Population growth improved from mere replacement to an estimated 50% increase per 500-year period. To visualize: a centenarian grandmother born as the 24th member of her group might see her community grow to 27 individuals.

The numbers tell a compelling story:

– 1000 AD: Sub-Saharan Africa, 40 million

– 1500 AD: Approximately 60 million

– 1800 AD: 80-90 million

– 1900 AD 100 million

– 2023: Over 1.4 billion

Eurasia had followed a different trajectory. By 1000 AD, Europe alone housed 30 million people, with Paris already displaying characteristics of a modern city. By 1500 AD, Europe’s diverse population exceeded 60 million, reaching 150 million by 1800. That’s diverse by skill sets, not gene pool.

Africa’s transformation began in earnest with European settlement. Van Riebeeck’s 1652 party of 90 marked South Africa’s entry into modernity, but it was limited to the immediate area of the Cape of Good Hope. Significant cultural exchange began in the 1800s. Each settler, regardless of number, carried generations of accumulated knowledge—from hygiene to technology, from agriculture to administration. They had, after all, been students in the Great Eurasian University established perhaps 200,000 years earlier.

Rhodes’ 1890s Pioneer Column exemplifies this transfer: 300 qualified professionals—lawyers, engineers, physicians, traders, and more—brought millennia of best practices to the region. Their impact transcended mere technological advancement; they introduced comprehensive systems of knowledge and practice.

Generally speaking, except for the churlish, such as the Zulu—the terror kings of the South African grasslands—the indigenous people tentatively and then openly welcomed these bearers of knowledge and new opportunities. As immigrants moved inland, inter-tribal conflicts diminished. Minorities could pursue their lives without constant threat, and the more powerful groups gradually accepted that economies based on plunder were becoming obsolete. The deeper inland the immigrants took their bounty of skills, and the more the ancient people realised how backward they were and opened up to them, the speedier and more pronounced the population change became.

This acceptance pattern is crucial to understanding how the knowledge transfer occurred so effectively, leading to the dramatic population growth documented in the statistics that follow.

The population statistics reveal the dramatic impact on Sub-Saharan Africa:

– 1900: 100 million

– 1950: 177 million

– 1960: 227 million

– 1980: 390 million

– 2000: 681 million

– 2020: 1.17 billion

South Africa’s transformation followed a similar path:

1900: 4.7 million (21% white)

1960: 17 million (19% white)

1980: 28.6 million (15% white)

2000: 45 million (10% white)

2020: 59 million (7.5% white)

The mathematical revelation is striking: using even double the historical growth rate of 50% per 500 years, today’s sub-Saharan population would be approximately 120 million—less than a tenth of its current size. Applied to South Africa, the black population would be around 5.5 million rather than its present number.

This demonstrates how external intervention, despite its complications, dramatically altered Africa’s demographic trajectory. The challenge now lies in transforming this population growth into sustainable development that benefits both Africa and the global community.

When discussing historical policies in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly regarding South Africa’s economic development, the demographic evidence speaks volumes. While acknowledging the complexities and mistakes of the past, the population statistics reveal an undeniable truth: the transfer of knowledge, healthcare, and modern practices enabled a demographic transformation unprecedented in African history. Without this intervention, had the Europeans looked and simply returned home, mathematical projections suggest nine out of ten present-day black Africans would not exist.

The next time you are being interviewed, remember this.